Guotai Junan: A shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. Recently, Guotai Junan's 2025 strategy meeting will be held in Shenzhen. The conference made an in-depth discussion and comprehensive outlook on the hot topics of market concern and the investment strategy in 2025. Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview that the bottom of the A-share market has emerged, which is optimistic about the prospects of China stock market. The key driving force for the market to start comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference. After a long period of continuous adjustment, the pessimistic expectation and microstructure of A-shares are fully clarified, and the positive signal of decision-makers to steady economic growth and support the capital market is an important cornerstone for the upward revision of long-term expectations and the elevation of the bottom of the stock market. Looking forward to the A-share market in 2025, Fang Yi said that there is still room for the optimistic policy expectation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and A-shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. However, in the case of rising geopolitical conflict risks, the stock index may face a staged headwind. However, as the market stabilizes and revises the economic and policy expectations, the stock index is expected to strengthen again in the second half of 2025. (shanghai securities news)The performance of deep thinking AI model exceeds the existing weather forecast. A study published in the new issue of Nature reported the latest machine learning model introduced by deep thinking. The model can make reliable probabilistic weather forecast according to current and future weather, and its performance not only exceeds the best traditional medium-range weather forecast, but also can better predict extreme weather, tropical cyclone route and wind energy production.The personal pension system will be expanded soon, and the third pillar of old-age security will be built in an all-round way. Recently, it was reported that the personal pension system will be implemented nationwide on the basis of pilot projects in 36 places. "It should be implemented nationwide soon. In fact, we have been making systematic preparations, and we are now well prepared." The staff of a state-owned bank in a non-pilot city told reporters. Industry researchers also told reporters that when the individual pension system was piloted, relevant supporting policies were made at the end of that year. "If it is fully rolled out according to the previous rhythm, there should be a saying before the end of this year." (Securities Times)
Securities Daily: Vigorously boosting consumption is the focus of the current macro policy. The article said that consumption is the ballast stone for stable economic operation. However, we must also see that residents' consumer confidence still needs to be enhanced. Therefore, it is necessary to take multiple measures simultaneously, constantly consolidate the foundation of consumption growth, enhance residents' willingness and ability to consume, and promote the sustained recovery of the consumer market. First, increase residents' income through multiple channels and improve their spending power. Second, further support the trade-in of consumer goods. Third, promote the upgrading and expansion of service consumption. Promoting consumption is the main starting point for expanding domestic demand, and boosting consumption is the focus of macroeconomic policy. We firmly believe that with the continuous efforts of various policy initiatives, consumer confidence will continue to increase and consumption potential will continue to be released.Market News: The U.S. Court of Appeal rejected the diversified disclosure rules of Nasdaq's board of directors.US$ 895 billion The US House of Representatives passed the national defense policy bill for fiscal year 2025. On December 11, local time, the US House of Representatives passed the national defense policy bill of US$ 895 billion with 281 votes in favor and 140 votes against, authorizing the Ministry of National Defense to provide funds for fiscal year 2025. It is reported that the bill has now been sent to the Senate.
Market participants: In 2025, the steel industry may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. At the 2025 China steel market prospect and the annual meeting of "My Steel", whether the profit space of steel enterprises can be enlarged in 2025, whether the supply-side capacity will be withdrawn in an orderly manner, and what factors should be relied on for the long-term development of enterprises have become the minds of many participants. The industry believes that the survival pressure of steel enterprises may be eased in 2025. The upstream supply of iron ore, coke and coking coal will reduce their prices, and the cost of steel enterprises will fall. The market may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. Market participants said that although steel prices are still expected to decline in 2025, the profit margin of steel enterprises may increase. (SSE)Make professional investment easier, explore the application of AI big model in the financial field, and actively embrace big model technology in the financial field. Since the beginning of this year, both financial data terminals and financial technology leaders have actively launched applications based on large models. Related applications are concentrated in high-frequency fields such as man-machine dialogue, intelligent investment and research, and intelligent investment and care, which makes the function of artificial intelligence in assisting investment gradually perfect. Many interviewees said that with the help of artificial intelligence technology, ordinary investors can realize professional-level analysis and decision-making process. This means that the "inclusive" era of professional investment will accelerate. (SSE)Soochow securities: The demand resonance of land, sea and wind installations is optimistic about the long-term growth of the plate. soochow securities released a research report saying that in 2025, the growth rate of wind installations will be high, with long-term growth. Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) and Qifan Cable (605222.SH) are recommended, and Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH) and Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487. SH) are concerned; Daikin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ), Haili Wind Energy (301155.SZ) and Taisheng Wind Energy (300129.SZ) are recommended.